There is a strong association between canonical El Niño and a wet Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) short rains. However, the link with Modoki El Niño events appears to be significantly weaker. In order to understand this, we present an analysis of …
Abstract The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy-driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two …
Atmospheric seasonal predictability in winter over the Euro-Atlantic region is studied with an emphasis on the signal-to-noise paradox of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Seasonal hindcasts of the ECMWF model for the recent period 1981–2009 show, in …
Based on skill estimates from hindcasts made over the last couple of decades, recent studies have suggested that considerable success has been achieved in forecasting winter climate anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic area using current-generation …