predictability

Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill

Recent studies have found evidence of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill. Here we assess the robustness of this finding by extending the analysis to a diverse set of ensemble atmospheric model …

Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century

Seasonal hindcast experiments, using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are analyzed for Northern Hemisphere winters from 1900 to 2010. Ensemble mean Pacific/North American index (PNA) skill varies dramatically, dropping toward zero during …