decadal predictions

Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions

The most prominent way to account for model uncertainty is through the pragmatic combination of simulations from individual climate models into a multi-model ensemble (MME). However, alternative approaches to represent intrinsic model errors within …

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

There is increasing demand for robust, reliable, and actionable climate information for the next 1 to 50 years. This is challenging for the scientific community as the longest initialized predictions are limited to 10 years (decadal predictions). …