This study investigates the influence of atmospheric initial conditions on winter seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Hindcast (or reforecast) experiments – which differ only in their initial conditions – are performed over …
Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, and many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. As the changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the …
The relationship between decadal sea surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat fluxes is assessed and used to identify where oceanic processes play an important role in extratropical decadal SST variability. In observational data sets and coupled …
The influence of tropical precipitation variability on summertime seasonal circulation anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector is investigated. The dominant mode of the maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between the Euro-Atlantic circulation and …
Flow-dependent spread (FDS) is a desirable characteristic of probabilistic forecasts; ensemble spread should represent the expected forecast error. However this is difficult to estimate for seasonal hindcasts as they tend to have a relatively small …
Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r ~0.5, p < …
The UK Met Office Unified Model in the Global Coupled 2 (GC2) configuration has a warm bias of up to almost $$7$backslash$,$backslash$hbox K$$7Kin the Gulf Stream SSTs in the winter season, which is associated with surface heat flux biases and …
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the extratropical North Pacific during boreal winter, which has an important impact on North American winter climate. This study analyses the …
Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where …
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperature (SST) has been shown to influence the climate of the surrounding continents. However, it is unclear to what extent the observed impact of the AMO is related to the thermodynamical …