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SST-driven variability of the East Asian summer jet on a decadal time-scale in CMIP6 models

The East Asian summer jet (EASJ) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its variability is correlated with precipitation and surface temperature variations over this region. Whilst many studies have considered the …

Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection

The circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) is an important mode of circulation variability, with an influence across many parts of the northern hemisphere. Here, we examine the excitation mechanisms of the CGT in the ECMWF seasonal forecast model, and the …

Forcing mechanism of the Silk Road pattern and the sensitivity of Rossby-wave source hotspots to mean-state winds

The Silk Road pattern (SRP) is a leading mode of Eurasian atmospheric variability in boreal summer. It remains challenging for many models to predict the temporal phase of the SRP. This study investigates whether the forcing mechanism of the SRP can …

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from …

Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions

The most prominent way to account for model uncertainty is through the pragmatic combination of simulations from individual climate models into a multi-model ensemble (MME). However, alternative approaches to represent intrinsic model errors within …

Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains

There is a strong association between canonical El Niño and a wet Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) short rains. However, the link with Modoki El Niño events appears to be significantly weaker. In order to understand this, we present an analysis of …

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

This study examines methods of calibrating projections of future regional climate for the next 40–50 years using large single-model ensembles (the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Max Planck Institute (MPI) Grand Ensemble), …

Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events

Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and …

Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

Political decisions, adaptation planning, and impact assessments need reliable estimates of future climate change and related uncertainties. To provide these estimates, different approaches to constrain, filter, or weight climate model projections …

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

There is increasing demand for robust, reliable, and actionable climate information for the next 1 to 50 years. This is challenging for the scientific community as the longest initialized predictions are limited to 10 years (decadal predictions). …