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Challenges with interpreting the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using SST-restoring experiments

Climate model simulations that restore SSTs in the North Atlantic have been used to explore the climate impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, despite simulations and observations exhibiting similar North Atlantic SST anomalies, …

Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: Challenges and potential solutions

This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has …

The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature

Since the 1980s, external forcings from increasing greenhouse gases and declining aerosols have had a large effect on European summer temperatures. These forcings may therefore provide an important source of forecast skill, even for timescales as …

Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection

The circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) is an important mode of circulation variability, with an influence across many parts of the northern hemisphere. Here, we examine the excitation mechanisms of the CGT in the ECMWF seasonal forecast model, and the …

Forcing mechanism of the Silk Road pattern and the sensitivity of Rossby-wave source hotspots to mean-state winds

The Silk Road pattern (SRP) is a leading mode of Eurasian atmospheric variability in boreal summer. It remains challenging for many models to predict the temporal phase of the SRP. This study investigates whether the forcing mechanism of the SRP can …

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from …

SST-driven variability of the East Asian summer jet on a decadal time-scale in CMIP6 models

The East Asian summer jet (EASJ) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its variability is correlated with precipitation and surface temperature variations over this region. Whilst many studies have considered the …

Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions

The most prominent way to account for model uncertainty is through the pragmatic combination of simulations from individual climate models into a multi-model ensemble (MME). However, alternative approaches to represent intrinsic model errors within …

Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains

There is a strong association between canonical El Niño and a wet Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) short rains. However, the link with Modoki El Niño events appears to be significantly weaker. In order to understand this, we present an analysis of …

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

This study examines methods of calibrating projections of future regional climate for the next 40–50 years using large single-model ensembles (the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Max Planck Institute (MPI) Grand Ensemble), …