Climate model simulations that restore SSTs in the North Atlantic have been used to explore the climate impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, despite simulations and observations exhibiting similar North Atlantic SST anomalies, …
This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has …
Since the 1980s, external forcings from increasing greenhouse gases and declining aerosols have had a large effect on European summer temperatures. These forcings may therefore provide an important source of forecast skill, even for timescales as …
The circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) is an important mode of circulation variability, with an influence across many parts of the northern hemisphere. Here, we examine the excitation mechanisms of the CGT in the ECMWF seasonal forecast model, and the …
The Silk Road pattern (SRP) is a leading mode of Eurasian atmospheric variability in boreal summer. It remains challenging for many models to predict the temporal phase of the SRP. This study investigates whether the forcing mechanism of the SRP can …
Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from …
The East Asian summer jet (EASJ) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its variability is correlated with precipitation and surface temperature variations over this region. Whilst many studies have considered the …
The most prominent way to account for model uncertainty is through the pragmatic combination of simulations from individual climate models into a multi-model ensemble (MME). However, alternative approaches to represent intrinsic model errors within …
There is a strong association between canonical El Niño and a wet Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) short rains. However, the link with Modoki El Niño events appears to be significantly weaker. In order to understand this, we present an analysis of …
This study examines methods of calibrating projections of future regional climate for the next 40–50 years using large single-model ensembles (the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Max Planck Institute (MPI) Grand Ensemble), …